"""Step 15:正确的区间套 —— 1h/4h 分型定位 + 15m 三类买卖点入场。 此前 step7~step14 一直把中枢放在大级别、并在大级别自己交易,级别关系搞反了。 本步按缠论正统结构重做: 大级别 1h / 4h 只出分型,负责方向与「预设转折点」(确认滞后 1 根) 小级别 15m 出中枢、出突破、出三类买卖点,负责精确入场 逐层验证: A 全部 15m 三买三卖(基线) B + 1h 分型方向一致 C + 4h 分型方向一致 D + 1h 与 4h 同时一致(完整区间套) E + 大级别分型带背驰 """ from __future__ import annotations import argparse import sys import warnings from pathlib import Path import numpy as np import pandas as pd warnings.filterwarnings("ignore") sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent)) from lib.breakout import run_trades, summarize_trades from lib.bsp_eval import forward_returns, run_pipeline, to_events from lib.data import fetch_ohlcv from lib.fx_signal import extract_fx_signals, signals_to_frame from lib.nested_bsp import attach_htf_context, htf_fx_timeline sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1])) from chanlun import TF_DF pd.set_option("display.width", 260) HORIZONS = (3, 5, 10, 20, 40) def show(rows: list[dict]) -> None: rows = [r for r in rows if r.get("笔数", 0) > 0] if not rows: print(" (样本不足)") return print(pd.DataFrame(rows).to_string(index=False)) def main() -> None: ap = argparse.ArgumentParser() ap.add_argument("--symbol", default="BTC/USDT:USDT") ap.add_argument("--ltf", default="15m", help="小级别:出中枢与三类买卖点") ap.add_argument("--htf1", default="1h", help="大级别一:出分型") ap.add_argument("--htf2", default="4h", help="大级别二:出分型") ap.add_argument("--zs", default="pure", choices=["pure", "seg"]) ap.add_argument("--sl", type=float, default=1.5) ap.add_argument("--tp", type=float, default=3.0) ap.add_argument("--max-bars", type=int, default=48) args = ap.parse_args() # ---- 小级别:三类买卖点 ---- df_l = fetch_ohlcv(args.symbol, args.ltf, 10**9) chan_l, bsp_list = run_pipeline(df_l, args.ltf, args.zs) cdf_l = chan_l.dataframe ev = forward_returns(to_events(bsp_list, cdf_l), cdf_l, HORIZONS) if ev.empty: print("小级别无买卖点") return ev3 = ev[ev["bsp_type"].isin(["B3", "S3"])].reset_index(drop=True) print(f"[小级别 {args.ltf}] {len(cdf_l)} 根K线 " f"{cdf_l['date'].iloc[0]} -> {cdf_l['date'].iloc[-1]}") print(f" 买卖点合计 {len(ev)} 其中三类 {len(ev3)} " f"(B3 {(ev3.bsp_type == 'B3').sum()} / S3 {(ev3.bsp_type == 'S3').sum()})") if not ev3.empty: print(f" 三类买卖点确认滞后:中位 {ev3['lag_bars'].median():.0f} 根 " f"均值 {ev3['lag_bars'].mean():.1f} 根") # ---- 大级别:分型时间线 ---- ctx = ev3 for tf, pref in ((args.htf1, "h1"), (args.htf2, "h2")): df_h = fetch_ohlcv(args.symbol, tf, 10**9) chan_h = TF_DF(df_h, 1, tf) sig_h = signals_to_frame(extract_fx_signals(chan_h, chan_h.dataframe)) tl = htf_fx_timeline(sig_h, chan_h.dataframe) print(f"[大级别 {tf}] 分型 {len(tl)} 个") ctx = attach_htf_context(ctx, cdf_l, tl, pref) a1 = ctx["h1_agree"] == 1 a2 = ctx["h2_agree"] == 1 print(f"\n[方向一致率] 1h {a1.mean() * 100:.0f}% 4h {a2.mean() * 100:.0f}% " f"两者同时 {(a1 & a2).mean() * 100:.0f}%") entries = lambda g: list(zip(g["entry_idx"].astype(int), g["direction"].astype(int))) print("\n########## 逐层过滤(事件驱动,sl1.5ATR tp3ATR max48)##########") rows = [ summarize_trades(run_trades(cdf_l, entries(ctx), args.sl, args.tp, args.max_bars), "A 全部三类"), summarize_trades(run_trades(cdf_l, entries(ctx[a1]), args.sl, args.tp, args.max_bars), f"B +{args.htf1}分型同向"), summarize_trades(run_trades(cdf_l, entries(ctx[a2]), args.sl, args.tp, args.max_bars), f"C +{args.htf2}分型同向"), summarize_trades(run_trades(cdf_l, entries(ctx[a1 & a2]), args.sl, args.tp, args.max_bars), "D 双大级别同向"), ] div1 = ctx["h1_div"] == 1 rows.append(summarize_trades( run_trades(cdf_l, entries(ctx[a1 & div1]), args.sl, args.tp, args.max_bars), f"E +{args.htf1}同向且背驰")) # 反向对照:大级别分型与信号相悖时应当更差 rows.append(summarize_trades( run_trades(cdf_l, entries(ctx[~a1]), args.sl, args.tp, args.max_bars), f"F {args.htf1}分型反向(对照)")) show(rows) print("\n########## 大级别分型的新鲜度(距分型确认的15m根数)##########") rows = [] for lo, hi, name in [(0, 8, "0-8根"), (8, 24, "8-24根"), (24, 96, "24-96根"), (96, 10**9, ">96根")]: g = ctx[a1 & (ctx["h1_age_bars"] >= lo) & (ctx["h1_age_bars"] < hi)] if len(g) >= 15: rows.append(summarize_trades( run_trades(cdf_l, entries(g), args.sl, args.tp, args.max_bars), name)) show(rows) print("\n########## 多空拆分(双大级别同向)##########") rows = [] both = ctx[a1 & a2] for d, nm in ((1, "做多 B3"), (-1, "做空 S3")): g = both[both["direction"] == d] if len(g) >= 10: rows.append(summarize_trades( run_trades(cdf_l, entries(g), args.sl, args.tp, args.max_bars), nm)) show(rows) print("\n########## 固定持有期收益(不设止损,看原始 alpha)##########") rows = [] for name, g in (("A 全部三类", ctx), (f"B +{args.htf1}同向", ctx[a1]), ("D 双大级别同向", ctx[a1 & a2])): if len(g) < 15: continue r = {"分组": name, "n": len(g)} for h in HORIZONS: v = g[f"ret_{h}"].dropna().to_numpy() if len(v) < 10: continue sd = v.std(ddof=1) r[f"{h}根"] = f"{v.mean() * 100:+.2f}%" r[f"{h}根t"] = f"{v.mean() / (sd / np.sqrt(len(v))):+.1f}" if sd else "—" rows.append(r) if rows: print(pd.DataFrame(rows).to_string(index=False)) out = Path(__file__).parent / "out" / f"step15_nested_{args.symbol.split('/')[0]}.csv" out.parent.mkdir(exist_ok=True) ctx.to_csv(out, index=False) print(f"\n明细已写入 {out}") if __name__ == "__main__": main()