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Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com>
2026-08-25 22:57:43 +08:00

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Wyckoff BTC System v1 — Decision Rule Locked

Architecture: Market State → Decision → Signal

Spring:          FROZEN
Gate v1.1:       LOCKED DEFAULT Decision rule  (PASS)
Soft-score:      REJECTED (no increment)
Hard-score:      REJECTED

Minimal rule:
  market_state in {accumulation, markup} -> allow Spring
  else -> block Spring

Primary invalidation domain: distribution
range: observation bucket only (NOT a trading rule)

Validity: DEFINED
Confidence: MEDIUM / defined-domain PASS
Status: DEFAULT RULES FROZEN
Next: dry-run / monitoring only(见 operational checklist

Operational

上线前不改规则,只验执行链:

DRY_RUN_DECISION_CHECKLIST.md

覆盖:信号一致性 · 日志字段 · dry-run 监控 · 报警 · 硬禁 · Go/No-Go。

Locked stack

Layer File Status
Signal Wyckoff_BTC_V1_BASELINE.py FROZEN
State engine/market_state.py causal v1.1
Decision Wyckoff_BTC_GATED.py LOCKED state_set
Boundary VALIDITY_BOUNDARY.md active

Robustness slices (blocked Spring, by year/era)

证据:scripts/wyckoff_gate_robustness_slices_result.json

Slice blocked n dist share top blocked blocked PF
2020 3 1.00 distribution 0.73
2021 4 0.75 distribution 0.31
2022 1 1.00 distribution 0
2023 1 1.00 distribution 0
2024 3 0.33 distribution+range 0
2025 1 0 range (obs) n=1 win
pre_2023 8 0.875 distribution 0.37
2023plus 5 0.40 distribution+range 1.22

Verdict: distribution 归因在多数有样本切片上稳定PASS)。
2023+ / 202425 中 range 占比上升 → 保持 观察标签,不升格为交易规则。

Do not

  • 调 Spring / soft-score / Gate 阈值
  • 因 range 小样本正 PF 开放 range 交易
  • 复活 LPS / 默认跨资产