From 58483b59d0187dbac34745259ff83ae4eb05dd79 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: PRAKUL HIREMATH <175131562+prakulhiremath@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Fri, 10 Apr 2026 20:25:39 +0530
Subject: [PATCH] Create Results Note.md

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+## Results Note
+
+The reported results are generated using a controlled synthetic limit order book (LOB) environment with a causal regime structure.
+
+Key points:
+- The data includes a latent build-up regime preceding observable stress with a delayed transition.
+- Evaluation is performed using lead-time (Δ = σ − τ), measuring how early a signal occurs relative to stress.
+- Precision corresponds to the fraction of detections that occur before stress (early detection rate).
+- Coverage measures the fraction of stress events that are successfully detected early.
+
+The proposed method prioritizes **early and reliable detection** over exhaustive coverage. As a result:
+- Lead-times are strictly positive.
+- Precision is high (often 100%).
+- Coverage is moderate, reflecting a deliberate trade-off between early detection and signal frequency.
+
+Baseline methods (imbalance and volatility) achieve higher coverage but produce negative lead-times, indicating reactive behavior.
+
+All results are reproducible via the provided pipeline and reflect the designed causal structure of the environment.