Snapshot nautilus_mm after EXP_002 Phase 1 stop.
Keep frozen research conclusions and code; raw ledgers and secrets stay out of git. Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com>
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jackyu66git
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# nautilus_mm — Research Freeze / Data Collection Phase
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Freqtrade 保留缠论 / 中低频；**Maker / L2 / Fill 事件**迁到 NautilusTrader。
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**研究对象：可验证的市场现象（不是策略）。**
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```
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Trading OS
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├─ Market Intelligence (Market Pulse) ← Stage5 才接（Quote Adjustment）
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├─ Execution Reality Layer (本仓库) ← Fill Alpha Dataset
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├─ Freqtrade ← Chan / 中低频
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└─ NautilusTrader ← 事件驱动执行
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```
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## 冻结研究路径（禁止跳级）
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```
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Stage 0 Data Integrity
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↓
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Stage 1 Fill Alpha ← 当前
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↓
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Stage 2 Maker Edge Report ← 当前（决策门）
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↓
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Stage 3 Economic Simulation ← LOCKED until Edge PASS
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↓
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Stage 4 Quote Engine
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↓
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Stage 5 Market Regime Adaptation (Market Pulse → Quote Adjustment)
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```
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| Stage | 目标 | 状态 |
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|-------|------|------|
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| **0** | WS/L2 可信：seq gap / latency / book_age | 探针已记 |
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| **1** | Fill Alpha Dataset：真实成交 + 路径 | **进行中** |
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| **2** | Maker Edge 决策门：PASS / FAIL / COLLECTING | **进行中** |
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| **3** | 经济仿真：quote→fill→inventory→exit（partial/cancel/funding/fee） | **未解锁** |
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| **4** | Quote Engine | 未开始 |
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| **5** | Regime Adaptation | 未开始 |
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原则：**先证明成交有优势，再谈账户收益，再设计报价。**
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禁止现在加：Quote Engine / AI / Market Pulse 交易信号 / 参数优化。
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### 核心问题（交给 ~2000 真实 fills）
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> 个人开发者在 BTC 永续上，通过被动流动性提供，是否能获得统计优势？
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> 若有：优势来自哪里？
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可能结果：
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| 情况 | 含义 | 下一步 |
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|------|------|--------|
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| **A** 全市场 PASS | 稳定被动流动性优势 | Symmetric MM |
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| **B** 仅特定状态 PASS | 高波动 / 吸收 / 震荡等 | Event-driven LP（更可能） |
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| **C** 全部 FAIL | 普通 Maker edge 不存在 | Cash Carry / Basis / Funding / 跨所 |
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**最值得等待的不是 PASS，而是 Edge 来自哪里。** 第一份 FAIL 也是高价值结果。
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### 防自我欺骗（已内建）
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1. **Cluster-weighted** — 暴跌 50 笔 Bid ≠ 50 独立样本；同时看 fill-w 与 cluster-w，方向一致才可信
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2. **Matched Mid / Maker Alpha** — `MakerAlpha = Fill Outcome − Market Move`（剥离方向收益）
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3. **Adverse Selection** — 成交是否天然站在错误一侧；spread capture 挡不住毒流
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Stage 3（Economic Simulation）只在 Edge PASS 后做：partial fill、cancel latency、inventory limit、position aging、funding、fee tier → 真实账户收益分布。
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## Maker Edge Report v0.1
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```bash
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./scripts/analyze.sh # 默认 min-fills=2000
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./scripts/analyze.sh 500 # 早期预览（仍为 COLLECTING）
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```
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报告结构：Data Integrity → Sample Independence → Fill Quality + Benchmark → Adverse Selection（`POSITIVE_EDGE` / `EDGE_AFTER_COST` / `NO_EDGE`）→ Path Attribution → State Stability → Decision。
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## 快速开始
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```bash
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cd nautilus_mm
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python3 -m venv .venv && source .venv/bin/activate
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pip install -r requirements.txt
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cp .env.example .env # TESTNET key；代理默认 7897
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./scripts/run_probe.sh # 攒真实 fills
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./scripts/analyze.sh 2000 # 决策门报告
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```
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探针只记 quote / fill / outcome。`market_state_snapshot` 预留为 null。
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## 目录
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```
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nautilus_mm/
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├── configs/
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├── logs/maker_edge/ # Fill Alpha Dataset (jsonl)
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├── scripts/
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│ ├── run_probe.sh
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│ ├── analyze.sh
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│ ├── analyze_maker_edge.py
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│ └── record_l2_ccxt.py
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└── src/nautilus_mm/
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├── recorder.py
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├── health.py
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├── book_utils.py
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├── run_live.py
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└── strategies/maker_edge_probe.py
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```
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## 与 Freqtrade
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| | Freqtrade | nautilus_mm |
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|--|-----------|-------------|
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| 用途 | 缠论 / 中低频 | Maker / L2 / Edge 验证 |
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| 驱动 | K 线 | order book / fill 事件 |
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## 安全
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- 默认 `BINANCE_ENVIRONMENT=TESTNET`
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- `ENABLE_TRADING=false` 可只订数据
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- **独立 `.venv`**，勿与 freqtrade 混装
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## 实验冻结（见 [FREEZE.md](FREEZE.md)）
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**三不动：** Quote Logic / 成本模型 / PASS·COLLECTING·FAIL
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| ✅ 冻结期允许 | ❌ Gate 解锁前禁止 |
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|-------------|-------------------|
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| 数据字段 | 新交易规则 |
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| 数据质量检查 | 新过滤条件 |
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| 报告解释能力 | 新收益优化参数 |
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Decision：`PASS` / `PARTIAL_PASS` / `COLLECTING` / `FAIL`
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观察窗：500 异常 · 2000 初步 · 10000 稳定性；**clusters > fills**。
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第一份报告先看分布（Fill / Cluster / Toxicity），再看 Decision。
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## 服务器 Data Collection（zun_hk）
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默认：
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| | |
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|--|--|
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| Host | `jack@jackyu66.com` |
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| Key | `~/Project/deploy/zun_hk/id_ed25519_hk` |
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| Dir | `/www/Project/nautilus_mm` |
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| Experiment | `MM_EDGE_EXP_001` |
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```bash
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./scripts/deploy_server.sh
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ssh -i ~/Project/deploy/zun_hk/id_ed25519_hk jack@jackyu66.com
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nano /www/Project/nautilus_mm/.env # BINANCE_API_KEY / SECRET
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systemctl --user start mm-edge-probe # 用户级 systemd（无需 sudo）
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journalctl --user -u mm-edge-probe -f
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./scripts/probe_status.sh
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./scripts/pull_report.sh 2000
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```
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本地短测：`USE_PROXY=true ./scripts/run_probe.sh`
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