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Economic Metric Reconciliation v0.1 (MATCHED=3890)
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Matched paths: 3886  (expected ~3886)

Definitions (same math as analyze_maker_edge):
- markout_30s_return = _fav_ret(side, fill_price, after_30s_price)
- gross_markout_usdt = sum(notional_usdt * markout_30s_return)

Return-space metrics (sign may differ due to weighting):
MakerAlpha fill-weighted mean return:          -0.000693%
MakerAlpha notional-weighted mean return:     -0.000816%
MakerAlpha cluster-weighted mean return:      -0.000830%

Dollar-space metrics:
gross_markout_usdt (30s):                     -1.730780 USDT
total_notional_usdt:                         212110.750 USDT

If fill-weighted return is + but gross_markout_usdt is negative,
it means notional weighting flips sign (alpha is conditionally realized).
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