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Economic Attribution v0.1
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Experiment: MM_EDGE_EXP_001
Population: MATCHED=3890
Strategy: v0.1 FROZEN
Execution: STOPPED
Stage3: LOCKED
Purpose: Economic Attribution only.
No strategy modification. No live execution. No economic simulation.

Layer 1 — Hard Economic Evidence
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Matched fills:         3890
Matched paths:         3886
Matched clusters:      3334
Fee total:             42.422146 USDT
Fee / fill:            0.010917 USDT
Fee / BTC:             12.748571 USDT
Fee / cluster:         0.012724 USDT
Realized component:    -8.521730 USDT
Gross markout @30s:    -1.730780 USDT
Net attributable @30s: -52.674655 USDT

Markout by horizon (MATCHED only)
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   1s  n=3886  fill-w=0.0020%  cluster-w=0.0020%  gross=4.140840 USDT
   5s  n=3886  fill-w=0.0016%  cluster-w=0.0016%  gross=3.405805 USDT
  10s  n=3886  fill-w=0.0011%  cluster-w=0.0011%  gross=2.359355 USDT
  30s  n=3886  fill-w=-0.0008%  cluster-w=-0.0008%  gross=-1.730780 USDT
 300s  n=3886  fill-w=-0.0036%  cluster-w=-0.0035%  gross=-7.597145 USDT

Inventory carry / exposure
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Max net BTC:           0.005900
Min net BTC:           -0.005800
Max |net BTC|:         0.005900
Average |net BTC|:     0.002928
TW |net BTC|:          0.003514
TW signed net BTC:     0.000985
Long qty / Short qty:  1.664600 / 1.667000 BTC
Inventory turnover:    3.331600 BTC

Slices (weighted by notional, MATCHED only)
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PathType
  A_immediate_edge: n=1481 clusters=1279 fee=16.0263 gross30=12.2348 realized=-1.7374 net30=-5.5289 m30=0.0153%
  C_toxic: n=1290 clusters=1114 fee=14.0688 gross30=-14.9293 realized=-2.4585 net30=-31.4566 m30=-0.0212%
  B_drawdown_then_recover: n=872 clusters=767 fee=9.6564 gross30=-0.3879 realized=-2.8336 net30=-12.8780 m30=-0.0008%
  D_mixed: n=243 clusters=215 fee=2.6706 gross30=1.3517 realized=-1.4922 net30=-2.8112 m30=0.0101%

Toxicity
  non_toxic: n=2596 clusters=2236 fee=28.3534 gross30=13.1986 realized=-6.0632 net30=-21.2181 m30=0.0093%
  toxic: n=1290 clusters=1114 fee=14.0688 gross30=-14.9293 realized=-2.4585 net30=-31.4566 m30=-0.0212%

Volatility
  high_vol: n=1944 clusters=1704 fee=21.7055 gross30=-2.0081 realized=-2.5833 net30=-26.2968 m30=-0.0019%
  low_vol: n=1942 clusters=1630 fee=20.7167 gross30=0.2773 realized=-5.9385 net30=-26.3778 m30=0.0003%

Trend
  range: n=1521 clusters=1383 fee=17.1880 gross30=-3.0744 realized=-5.2785 net30=-25.5409 m30=-0.0036%
  trend_up: n=1255 clusters=1097 fee=13.3447 gross30=-0.1835 realized=0.0748 net30=-13.4534 m30=-0.0003%
  trend_down: n=1110 clusters=972 fee=11.8894 gross30=1.5271 realized=-3.3181 net30=-13.6803 m30=0.0026%

FillContext
  neutral: n=1388 clusters=1213 fee=15.0971 gross30=-4.8338 realized=0.9367 net30=-18.9942 m30=-0.0064%
  sell_resistance: n=979 clusters=861 fee=10.8956 gross30=3.4773 realized=-6.2202 net30=-13.6385 m30=0.0064%
  buy_support: n=957 clusters=842 fee=10.6441 gross30=1.0563 realized=-4.6005 net30=-14.1883 m30=0.0020%
  buy_pressure_absorbing: n=288 clusters=242 fee=2.9699 gross30=-1.2138 realized=0.5556 net30=-3.6281 m30=-0.0082%
  sell_pressure_absorbing: n=246 clusters=207 fee=2.4642 gross30=-0.6444 realized=0.9138 net30=-2.1947 m30=-0.0052%
  sell_pressure_falling: n=10 clusters=10 fee=0.1276 gross30=0.0567 realized=0.0293 net30=-0.0416 m30=0.0089%
  buy_pressure_rising: n=8 clusters=8 fee=0.0959 gross30=-0.1242 realized=-0.0006 net30=-0.2207 m30=-0.0259%
  momentum_down_catching_knife: n=5 clusters=5 fee=0.0635 gross30=0.1872 realized=-0.1360 net30=-0.0123 m30=0.0590%
  momentum_up_chasing: n=5 clusters=5 fee=0.0643 gross30=0.3079 realized=0.0002 net30=0.2437 m30=0.0958%

Layer 2 — Evidence Extension (excluded from core conclusion)
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VENUE_CONFIRMED_NO_TRADE_HISTORY: 876
VENUE_PARTIAL_ORDER_CANCELED:     11
These rows are order-confirmed, but not part of the Hard Evidence Population.

Layer 3 — Counterfactual Attribution (NOT backtest)
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Observed vs Exclude-Bucket Attribution. These are contribution decompositions only.
BASELINE: fills=3886 clusters=3332 fee=42.4221 gross30=-1.7308 realized=-8.5217 net30=-52.6747 m30=-0.0008%
EXCLUDE_PATH_C: fills=2596 clusters=2236 fee=28.3534 gross30=13.1986 realized=-6.0632 net30=-21.2181 m30=0.0093%
EXCLUDE_TOXIC: fills=2596 clusters=2236 fee=28.3534 gross30=13.1986 realized=-6.0632 net30=-21.2181 m30=0.0093%
EXCLUDE_NEGATIVE_STATE: fills=1956 clusters=1723 fee=21.7951 gross30=5.0854 realized=-10.9272 net30=-27.6369 m30=0.0047%

Interpretation
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Core conclusion is based on 3890 fully matched fills.
Economic Attribution asks why MakerAlpha did not convert to money.
It does NOT change quote logic, does NOT restart v0.1, and does NOT unlock Stage 3.
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