chanmacro: Signal Expectancy Engine V1 — Market Memory System

Phase A-C complete: 4 core factors, regime detection, signal tracking, Bayesian expectancy. chanmacro/ (32 files, ~4000 lines): - models: 12 enums + 15 Pydantic v2 models (DateAwareModel, MarketStateVector, etc.) - fetchers: OHLCV + Breadth (from data_provider) + Derivatives (new endpoint) - scoring: Price Structure / Breadth (quantile buckets) / OI Matrix (5 discrete states) / Volatility Regime - regime_detector: 3-state (TREND/RANGE/PANIC), factor-locked (Price+Breadth+Vol), versioned, 2-day confirmation - expectancy: SignalTracker (record+outcomes), TimeDecay (half-life=180d), BayesianExpectancyEngine (Empirical Bayes, Leveled, SufficiencyGuard) - validation: FactorValidator (IC/ICIR/Hit Ratio), RegimeValidator (MI/KL/ANOVA), TransitionValidator (stability) - CLI: fetch|score|regime|track|backfill|expectancy|validate|serve - tests: 52 passing (models, scoring, regime, expectancy) data_provider: - /api/derivatives endpoint: funding rate, OI, OI change, basis - _derivatives storage: same persist pattern as K-line (merge→lock→snapshot→atomic write) - background refresh every 60s Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-24 17:44:55 +08:00
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+"""
+scoring/constants.py — Scoring thresholds, scale factors, and reference values.
+
+All magic numbers in one place. Tune these via Phase 0 validation.
+"""
+
+# ── Price Structure ──────────────────────────────────────────
+# ADX thresholds
+ADX_TREND_THRESHOLD = 25       # ADX > 25 = trending
+ADX_STRONG_THRESHOLD = 40      # ADX > 40 = strong trend
+
+# EMA alignment
+EMA_ALIGNMENT_BULLISH = 1.0    # EMA20 > EMA60 > EMA120
+EMA_ALIGNMENT_NEUTRAL = 0.5    # mixed
+EMA_ALIGNMENT_BEARISH = 0.0    # EMA20 < EMA60 < EMA120
+
+# Volatility compression (BB width relative to 20d average)
+BB_COMPRESSION_LOW = 0.7       # < 70% of avg = compressing
+BB_COMPRESSION_HIGH = 1.5      # > 150% of avg = expanding
+
+# Momentum (ROC annualized)
+ROC_STRONG_BULLISH = 10.0      # % over period
+ROC_STRONG_BEARISH = -10.0
+
+# Consecutive candle threshold
+CONSECUTIVE_CANDLES_SIGNAL = 4
+
+# ── Breadth ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# Quantile boundaries for breadth buckets
+BREADTH_QUANTILES = [0, 0.1, 0.3, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0]  # PANIC/WEAK/NORMAL/STRONG/EXTREME
+
+# Breadth score computation weights
+BREADTH_W_ADVANCE = 0.30       # advance/decline ratio
+BREADTH_W_EMA20 = 0.35         # % above EMA20
+BREADTH_W_NEW_HIGHS = 0.20     # new highs count
+BREADTH_W_BTC_DOM = 0.15       # BTC dominance change (inverted)
+
+# ── OI Matrix ────────────────────────────────────────────────
+OI_PRICE_THRESHOLD = 0.5       # min |price_change%| to classify
+OI_OI_THRESHOLD = 0.5          # min |OI_change%| to classify
+
+# Score mapping for OI states
+OI_STATE_SCORES = {
+    "New Longs": 85,
+    "Short Covering": 60,
+    "New Shorts": 20,
+    "Long Exit": 35,
+    "Neutral": 50,
+}
+
+# ── Volatility Regime ────────────────────────────────────────
+VOL_LOW = 2.0                  # ATR/Close % below this = LOW_VOL
+VOL_HIGH = 5.0                 # ATR/Close % below this = HIGH_VOL (above = EXPLOSIVE)
+HV_RATIO_LOW = 0.7             # HV(20)/HV(60) below this = compressing
+HV_RATIO_HIGH = 1.5            # HV(20)/HV(60) above this = expanding
+
+# Score mapping
+VOL_REGIME_SCORES = {
+    "LOW_VOL": 40,              # Low vol → neutral with breakout potential
+    "NORMAL_VOL": 55,
+    "HIGH_VOL": 75,
+    "EXPLOSIVE_VOL": 90,
+}
+
+# ── Regime ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
+REGIME_W_PRICE = 0.35
+REGIME_W_BREADTH = 0.50
+REGIME_W_VOL = 0.15
+
+# PANIC: anti-trend + extreme vol (NO Fear/Liquidation)
+PANIC_W_ANTI_TREND = 0.60
+PANIC_W_VOL_EXTREME = 0.40
+
+# ── Trend (L2) ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+TREND_W_PRICE = 0.30
+TREND_W_BREADTH = 0.70
+
+# ── Maturity ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
+MATURITY_W_TREND = 0.50
+MATURITY_W_BREADTH = 0.30
+MATURITY_W_VOL = 0.20
+
+# ── Expectancy ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+HALF_LIFE_DAYS = 180
+SUFFICIENCY_MIN = 30
+SUFFICIENCY_LOW = 50
+SUFFICIENCY_MEDIUM = 100
+LEVEL_MIN_SAMPLES = 50
+KNN_MAX_DISTANCE = 0.35
+KNN_K = 200
+
+# ── Validation ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+MIN_AVG_DURATION = 5
+MAX_FLIP_RATE = 0.15
+MIN_IC_THRESHOLD = 0.03
+MIN_ICIR_THRESHOLD = 0.5
+MIN_IG_THRESHOLD = 0.1      # Information Gain for regime factors
+MIN_KL_THRESHOLD = 0.5       # KL Divergence for regime separation