chanmacro: Signal Expectancy Engine V1 — Market Memory System

Phase A-C complete: 4 core factors, regime detection, signal tracking, Bayesian expectancy.

chanmacro/ (32 files, ~4000 lines):
- models: 12 enums + 15 Pydantic v2 models (DateAwareModel, MarketStateVector, etc.)
- fetchers: OHLCV + Breadth (from data_provider) + Derivatives (new endpoint)
- scoring: Price Structure / Breadth (quantile buckets) / OI Matrix (5 discrete states) / Volatility Regime
- regime_detector: 3-state (TREND/RANGE/PANIC), factor-locked (Price+Breadth+Vol), versioned, 2-day confirmation
- expectancy: SignalTracker (record+outcomes), TimeDecay (half-life=180d), BayesianExpectancyEngine (Empirical Bayes, Leveled, SufficiencyGuard)
- validation: FactorValidator (IC/ICIR/Hit Ratio), RegimeValidator (MI/KL/ANOVA), TransitionValidator (stability)
- CLI: fetch|score|regime|track|backfill|expectancy|validate|serve
- tests: 52 passing (models, scoring, regime, expectancy)

data_provider:
- /api/derivatives endpoint: funding rate, OI, OI change, basis
- _derivatives storage: same persist pattern as K-line (merge→lock→snapshot→atomic write)
- background refresh every 60s

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>

ChanMacro/tests/test_models.py

@@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
+"""Test all Pydantic models and enums."""
+import pytest
+from datetime import date
+from models import (
+    MarketRegime, OIState, BreadthBucket, VolRegime,
+    MarketStateVector, FactorScore, RegimeResult,
+    SignalFeatureRecord, ExpectancyReport, DailyOutput,
+    FactorContribution, SufficiencyLevel, SignalGrade,
+)
+
+
+class TestEnums:
+    def test_regime_values(self):
+        assert MarketRegime.TREND.value == "TREND"
+        assert MarketRegime.RANGE.value == "RANGE"
+        assert MarketRegime.PANIC.value == "PANIC"
+
+    def test_oi_state_has_neutral(self):
+        assert OIState.NEUTRAL.value == "Neutral"
+        assert len(OIState) == 5
+
+    def test_breadth_bucket_values(self):
+        assert BreadthBucket.EXTREME.value == "EXTREME"
+        assert len(BreadthBucket) == 5
+
+    def test_vol_regime_values(self):
+        assert VolRegime.LOW_VOL.value == "LOW_VOL"
+        assert VolRegime.EXPLOSIVE_VOL.value == "EXPLOSIVE_VOL"
+
+
+class TestMarketStateVector:
+    def test_minimal_construction(self):
+        sv = MarketStateVector(
+            date="2026-06-24",
+            regime=MarketRegime.TREND,
+            regime_confidence=0.82,
+            regime_version="v1_price_breadth_vol",
+        )
+        assert sv.date == date(2026, 6, 24)
+        assert sv.regime == MarketRegime.TREND
+        assert sv.breadth_top50 == 50.0  # default
+
+    def test_date_string_parsing(self):
+        sv = MarketStateVector(
+            date="2026-01-15",
+            regime=MarketRegime.RANGE,
+            regime_confidence=0.55,
+            regime_version="v1_price_breadth_vol",
+        )
+        assert sv.date == date(2026, 1, 15)
+
+    def test_compute_hash(self):
+        sv = MarketStateVector(
+            date="2026-06-24",
+            regime=MarketRegime.TREND,
+            regime_confidence=0.82,
+            regime_version="v1_price_breadth_vol",
+            breadth_bucket=BreadthBucket.EXTREME,
+            oi_state=OIState.NEW_LONGS,
+            volatility_regime=VolRegime.NORMAL_VOL,
+        )
+        h = sv.compute_hash()
+        assert len(h) == 12
+        # Same state = same hash
+        sv2 = MarketStateVector(
+            date="2026-06-25",
+            regime=MarketRegime.TREND,
+            regime_confidence=0.80,
+            regime_version="v1_price_breadth_vol",
+            breadth_bucket=BreadthBucket.EXTREME,
+            oi_state=OIState.NEW_LONGS,
+            volatility_regime=VolRegime.NORMAL_VOL,
+        )
+        assert sv2.compute_hash() == h
+
+    def test_state_embedding(self):
+        sv = MarketStateVector(
+            date="2026-06-24",
+            regime=MarketRegime.TREND,
+            regime_confidence=0.82,
+            regime_version="v1_price_breadth_vol",
+            breadth_top20=80.0,
+            breadth_top30=75.0,
+            breadth_top50=70.0,
+            regime_maturity_score=60.0,
+        )
+        emb = sv.state_embedding()
+        assert len(emb) == 5
+        assert emb[0] == 80.0
+        assert emb[3] == 60.0
+
+
+class TestRegimeResult:
+    def test_construction(self):
+        r = RegimeResult(
+            date="2026-06-24",
+            regime=MarketRegime.TREND,
+            confidence=0.82,
+            regime_version="v1_price_breadth_vol",
+            maturity_score=55.0,
+            all_scores={"TREND": 82.0, "RANGE": 45.0, "PANIC": 20.0},
+            confirmation_days=5,
+        )
+        assert r.regime == MarketRegime.TREND
+        assert r.confirmation_days == 5
+
+
+class TestExpectancyReport:
+    def test_insufficient(self):
+        r = ExpectancyReport(
+            signal_type="B3",
+            date="2026-06-24",
+            final_estimate=0.0,
+            sufficiency=SufficiencyLevel.INSUFFICIENT,
+            source="insufficient",
+        )
+        assert r.final_estimate == 0.0
+        assert r.sufficiency == SufficiencyLevel.INSUFFICIENT
+
+
+class TestFactorContribution:
+    def test_construction(self):
+        fc = FactorContribution(
+            factor="ETF Flow",
+            raw_score=85.0,
+            weight=0.1925,
+            impact=6.7,
+            direction="bullish",
+        )
+        assert fc.impact > 0